June, 2024

Recent Trends in War and Political Risks Law and Practice

Presented by Paul Wordley, Costas Frangeskides and Peter Deegan.

Date: 25th June 2024 – 13:00 – 14:30

Venue: InterContinental Hotel, ul. Emilii Plater 49, Warsaw 00-125

Food and drinks will be served.

Description

This Masterclass will provide an overview of the Insurance and Reinsurance issues arising from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In 2011, Steven Pinker argued in his bestseller “The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined” that, relative to population, wars and violence have been in retreat over the long term as well as the short term.

He was wrong.

Some of the key findings in the 2023 Global Peace Index:

  • 79 countries witnessed increased levels of conflict.
  • The global economic impact of violence increased by 17% or $1 trillion, to $17.5 trillion in 2022, equivalent to 13% of global GDP.
  • A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would reduce global output of $2.7 trillion.
  • 91 countries are now involved in external conflict, up from 58 in 2008.

In 1992, Francis Fukuyama wrote in “The End of History and the Last Man” that we have reached “…the end-point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”

He was wrong.

This year 76 countries are holding elections. The Democracy Index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit covers 71 of those countries and, in only 43 of them, will the votes be free and fair.

According to a recent report from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, we live in an era of “democratic backsliding”. The global level of democracy is back to that in 1985 – before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Worldwide, trust in government is low, economic inequality is high and populism is back in fashion. This is having a profound impact on the global insurance market for war and political risks, and it is changing how legal systems deal with these risks.

Please indicate if you would like to attend by email peter.deegan@wordleylaw.com

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